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New energy vehicles will surely lead China

  • Author:Jonin
  • Source:LSQ STAR
  • Release on:2018-06-11
The world is entering the era of electrification, and China is leading the development of the electric vehicle market. In terms of technology, the current major manufacturers have introduced pure battery electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and 48-volt light hybrid systems. Although auto companies in various regions and countries have different development paths for new energy sources, the penalties imposed on countries in the world are astonishing and consistent. That is, if auto manufacturers do not reduce carbon dioxide emissions, they must pay large fines.

In Europe, strict laws have been enacted to provide 95g/km by 2021 and 81g/km by 2025. Automakers that fail to meet this goal will face fines of several billion euros. If, according to the standards of the current powertrains of major automakers, if it does not meet the requirements by 2025, then it is expected that Volkswagen will face a fine of at least 6.3 billion euros, with Hyundai Kia exceeding 4 billion euros and FCA exceeding 3.2 billion euros. , Ford 2.7 billion euros, Renault fined 2.1 billion euros.

From the perspective of automakers, the real purpose of current production of new energy vehicles is to meet the emission requirements stipulated by the law, not necessarily for the purpose of building vehicles. Therefore, at the initial stage of the development of new energy vehicles, the quality of new energy vehicles is mixed. . However, the general trend of new energy vehicles will not change.

It is estimated that by 2030, the market share of the battery electric vehicle and fuel cell electric vehicle market will reach 30% or 40%. In addition, the share of plug-in hybrid and hybrid vehicles is expected to reach one-third of the total vehicle volume. Here, 48-volt mild hybrid vehicles are becoming mainstream. In other words, this means that the proportion of cars equipped with only internal combustion engines will drop to 20-30%.

In particular, diesel engines will almost lose their prospects by around 2030. It is expected that in Europe, the proportion of light/micro hybrid vehicles will reach 50%.

There are differences in the views of electric vehicle manufacturers. European manufacturers are now actively applying plug-in hybrids and 48-volt light hybrids to cars. Therefore, European manufacturers plan to respond to regulations and reduce costs through 48-volt light mixing systems.

In contrast, China is actively promoting the development of electric vehicles from the government level. In 2017, China established a mid-to-long-term development plan for the automotive industry. The goal is to become the top 10 in the world by becoming a powerful country in the next 10 years and a motor based component for new energy vehicles such as batteries and new energy vehicles. Manufacturer of BEV + PHEV + FCEV). It is not easy for traditional internal combustion engines to ensure competitiveness in the world market. Therefore, it is not only to increase the Chinese market share through new energy vehicles, but also to consider future export policies.

It should be noted that the overall goal of the long-term policy of the Chinese automobile industry will be in the automotive industry's core technologies and spare parts supply, new business creation, production, automotive exports, environmental protection, and other fields. China will create several world-class Giants.

By 2020, it will cultivate the world's top ten new energy automobile manufacturers. In the key technology fields such as powertrains, transmissions, batteries and motors, and in the supply of spare parts, we will strive to cultivate internationally competitive component manufacturers and actively develop the current There are no competitive areas such as sensors, ECUs, lightweight materials and advanced manufacturing facilities. By 2020, it will cultivate sales of 100 billion yuan worth of parts and components manufacturers, and will enter the top 10 in the world by 2025.

In order to strengthen its brand influence, China plans to cultivate a leading company in the field of new energy vehicles, and in 2020 it will create several brands that can be promoted globally. By 2025, it will enter the top 10 in the world through sales. By 2020, the average car's fuel efficiency will increase to 4.5 to 5.0 liters per 100 kilometers, and by 2025, the target will increase to 4.0 liters. The vehicle's recovery rate also remained at 95%.

China is in the process of implementing new energy vehicle regulations from 2019, with the goal of setting a similar fuel economy level to that of Europe (108 g/km in 2021 and 92 g/km in 2025). The problem is that apart from BYD, which focuses on battery-powered vehicles, Chinese automakers must increase their fuel economy by 30-40% by 2025. Therefore, most companies must mobilize.

China is the biggest weapon in the market. No country has a population of 1.5 billion and huge demand. As long as there is no natural disaster, China will surpass Germany and the United States. Become a global leader in new energy vehicles. To achieve this goal, China has placed special emphasis on the status of new energy vehicles. In the near future, global consumers will buy Chinese cars as well as computers, home appliances and smart phones.